Bachmann's steep path to the nomination

BACHMANN'S STEEP PATH: To the nomination, writes Nate Silver.

If I were to write a script involving Mrs. Bachmann winning the Republican nomination, it would probably require Mr. Perry’s campaign to be already in a somewhat weakened state prior to Iowa because of a gaffe or some other key misstep. Then, perhaps, a disappointing performance in Iowa could be more of a death blow to him, with Mrs. Bachmann getting her head-to-head match-up against Mr. Romney — a very challenging but not impossible task. Still, the combination of Mr. Perry’s emergence, and Mrs. Bachmann’s inability to broaden her appeal as she has become better known to voters, have put her in a difficult position. There are so many hurdles to clear in this scenario, not all of them within Mrs. Bachmann’s immediate control, that there probably isn’t more than one chance in 25 of things coming together in just the right way.