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BACHMANN WINS: The Ames Straw Poll, with "4,823 votes, narrowly escaping a major upset at the hands of Texas Rep. Ron Paul who won 4,671 votes."
WHY IT MATTERS: Nate Silver explains. "It is easy to make fun
of the Ames Straw Poll. It can’t exactly be described as democratic
when you — or the candidate hoping to secure your vote — have to pay
your way into the polls. But Ames has a pretty good predictive
track record. Since the event began in 1979, the candidate winning the
Iowa caucus has placed first or second in the straw poll every time. Two
successes in particular stand out. In 1979, George H.W. Bush won Ames
despite polling at just 1 percent in a Des Moines Register survey — he
went on to win the Iowa caucus. And in 2007 Mike Huckabee, in the low
single digits in both state and national polls, finished second in the
straw poll, the first tangible indicator of his upside in Iowa."