Iowa winners and losers, continued

WINNERS AND LOSERS, CTD: At the Iowa Debate, according to Matt Yglesias.

But what Pawlenty’s been reminding us these past few months is that you can’t win an election on paper. As Republicans think about who they want to serve as their standard-bearer, obviously they don’t want someone Barack Obama will run circles around. Pawlenty looks like someone who’d get clobbered. Will Perry? You can’t tell unless he actually gets in the arena. If he gets in and he’s gone, then Romney’s got a big problem. If he doesn’t get in, or if he gets in and looks weak, then you have Romney vs Bachmann in a battle of two candidates who seemingly can’t win. And yet someone has to win!

Jonathan Chait concludes:

I think Romney, not Bachmann, has the most to lose. Perry is Romney without the weaknesses -- a tall, handsome, alpha male with extraordinary hair who fulfills the cinematic vision of a president. Perry has made his career doing exactly what his role calls out for him here -- knifing less-ideologically pure Republicans and playing to the party's id. Ask yourself: what Republican voter would prefer Romney to Perry? Perhaps Mormons, or those who worry the party has grown too extreme, or those who think it risks defeat by appearing too stridently conservative. That doesn't sound to me like a majority of the primary electorate.

Erza Klein's take on the event here. Mine here.