Is the Assad Regime Really Falling?

Let's not be too quick to jump to conclusions:

There is little future in Syria for Alawites once Assad is gone. What’s more, the Syrian leader knows there will be no safe haven for him anywhere even if he agrees to step down. The precedent for prosecutions of deposed despots has already been established. He knows that he will either end his days in his palace or eventually wind up in a courtroom in The Hague. That has concentrated his mind wonderfully on the task of slaughtering as many of his compatriots as needed to ensure the latter is not the case.

(Image: "A member of the Free Syrian Army holds a burning portrait of President Bashar al-Assad, in Al-Qsair, southwest of Homs, Syria." Alessio Romenzi/AFP/Getty Images, via Bloomberg)